Market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that global smartphone shipments will drop below 1.1 billion units in 2026, reaching the lowest level since 2013. The key driving factor is the rapidly worsening memory supply shortage. Prices of mobile LPDDR4/5 memory are expected to reach nearly three times the level of Q3 2025 in Q2 2026, reflecting an unprecedented supply crunch.
Yang Wang, Chief Analyst at Counterpoint Research, stated: “The impact is expected to last until the second half of 2027, as memory supply expansion will take several quarters to materialize. Low-end smartphones will likely be hit hardest, especially as LPDDR4 supply shrinks faster than expected. OEMs have already started to take countermeasures, such as delaying launches, streamlining product lines, and adjusting specifications. We also observed price increases of 10% to 20% in the product portfolios of some Android OEMs in January 2026.”
According to the firm, the current downturn is caused by deep structural imbalances across the memory supply chain, as manufacturers continue to shift wafer capacity to higher-margin AI‑optimized DRAM and enterprise‑grade SSD NAND flash. This shift, combined with persistent underinvestment during the post‑pandemic market adjustment, has led to a multi‑quarter supply gap in mobile‑grade LPDDR4/5 memory, leaving OEMs with an uncertain supply outlook and tighter allocation than at any point in the past decade. Unlike a typical demand‑driven cycle, the 2026‑2027 contraction is fundamentally a supply‑side issue, and any recovery will depend on how quickly new memory capacity and yields come online.
(Reprinted from https://news.eccn.com/）